FRASER VALLEY

2023 ends with record low sales; 10 year cycles show strong resilience

The Fraser Valley’s 2023 record for the lowest sales volume in 10 years may actually be a promising sign the market could soon turn around – if recent history is recalled. The Real Estate Board’s news release in January 2014 looked back at 2013 with the words: “Sales last year were amongst the lowest they’ve been in the last decade.” While our recent memory tends to focus on the Covid-induced low interest rate home buying frenzy followed by Bank of Canada’s inflation flighting (and market cooling) rate hikes over the past two years, it’s also worth considering what these 10-year cycles may have in store for us. Two years after its dismal 2013 performance, the Fraser Valley recorded the highest number of home sales since 2005. The 2015 record-setting $16.2 billion was then surpassed in the next year by an additional $4-billion in transactions. As prospective home buyers (and sellers) are now readying themselves for widely expected interest rates cuts starting later this year, the Valley’s traditional resilience is also widely anticipated. On a monthly view, December’s sales followed the recent downward trend for a total of 837 transactions, a decline of 6.0% from the preceding month, but notably 17.0% higher than the same month one year ago. Likewise, new listings also dropped last month, down 54.0% from November, but also 17.0% higher than one year earlier. This brought the Valley’s available inventory at the end of 2023 to 4,670 homes, a decrease of 25.0% from the previous month, but still 19.0% higher than the same period one year earlier. While December is typically one of the slowest months for home sale, the overall decline in market activity can fairly be attributed in the largest part to the high interest rates, although some major banks have already begun to offer reduced mortgage rates ahead of the Bank of Canada’s forecasted rate cuts. Fraser Valley home prices have inched downwards in recent months, with the Valley’s overall benchmark now again below $1-million. At the end of December 2023, the combined benchmark price for Fraser Valley residential property was $988,900, a 1.5% decline from the preceding month.

My monthly selection below provides a guide to benchmark prices in different areas of the Fraser Valley at the end of December 2023. For each property type you will find a cluster of average geographical prices around the benchmark for the category. Keep in mind the benchmarks are averages for comparable homes, and look at the upper and lower extremities of each benchmark for the range of specific prices calculated. Please feel free to call me for the most up to date prices and new listings.  And if you are considering selling your home, I can prepare a Customized Market Analysis for your property and advise you on the optimal listing price in the current market. New listings still sell quickly in the Valley, on average about 41 days on the market. Last month, single family detached home were on the market for 40 days; townhouses on average for 32 days; and condominiums for an average of 33 days. Please don’t hesitate to call me if you have any questions about your real estate transactions. I am always happy to help my clients in any way.   

Detached Homes

The benchmark price for a detached home in the Fraser Valley at the end of December was $1,471,500, a decrease of 1.2% from the preceding month. The extremities of this average were South Surrey/White Rock at $1,906,000 and Mission at $983,200. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: Surrey at $1,509,800, decrease of 0.9% from the preceding month; Langley at $1,606,500, a decrease of 1.0% from the preceding month; and South Surrey/White Rock at $1,906,000, a decrease of 2.3% from the preceding month. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the lower side of the average were: Cloverdale at $1,461,000,  a decrease of from the preceding month; Cloverdale at $1,472,200, a decrease of 0.8% from the preceding month; and North Delta at $1,347,000, a decrease of 1.2% from the preceding month.

Townhouses

The benchmark price for a townhouse in the Fraser Valley at the end of December was $826,400, a decrease of 1.3% from the preceding month. The extremities of this average were South Surrey/White Rock at $953,600 and Abbotsford at $646,800. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: Cloverdale at $843,900, a decrease of 0.3% from the preceding month; Langley at $842,500, a decrease of 1.0% from the preceding month; and North Delta at $907,600, a decrease of 0.9% from the preceding month. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the lower side of the average were: Surrey at $823,800, a decrease of 2.2% from the preceding month; North Surrey at $738,200, a decrease of 1.9% from the preceding month; and Mission at $670,500, a decrease of 0.2% from the preceding month.

 

Condominiums

The benchmark price for a condominium in the Fraser Valley at the end of December was $537,600, a decrease of 1.4% from the preceding month. The extremities of this average were South Surrey/White Rock at $627,500 and Abbotsford at $446,400. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: Surrey at $553,700, a decrease of 0.4% from the preceding month; Cloverdale at $564,500, a decrease of 3.8% from the preceding month; and North Delta at $573,400, a decrease of 0.5% from the preceding month. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the lower side of the average were: North Surrey at $482,700, a decrease of 1.4% from the preceding month; Abbotsford at $446,400, an increase of 0.9% from the preceding month; and Mission at $452,300, no change from the preceding month.

I can help

These are challenging times for home buyers and homeowners. With higher mortgage interest rates, you may need to adjust your financial strategy for your home purchase. If you need help in managing your home ownership plans, I can help. I have post-graduate education in business along with years of experience in both banking and real estate. I am happy to help in any way I can. I want my clients to achieve their goals. Please don’t hesitate to call me.