METRO VANCOUVER

Dip in April sales volume prompts speculation on market; upward price pressure continues

After the lengthy trend of escalating sales volume in Metro Vancouver’s hot housing market over many months, the slight drop recorded at the end of April has raised the question of whether it is the beginning of downward trend. Certainly, a single dip does not indicate a trend, but there are several factors that could influence the psychology of the buyers and sellers in the current market. So, let’s look at the broader context. First, April’s decline of 14% is measured from the preceding March which happened to be the highest recorded level for any month in Metro Vancouver’s history. Second, the actual number of sales in April reached 4,908, the highest total ever for the month of April, nearly 343% higher than the same period one year ago, and 56% above the 10-year average for April sales. Last but not least, compare the one-month decline of 23% in January sales this year, and then recall the 56% increase in the next month. In short, in the absence of any other signs of an ongoing downturn in the current level of activity in Metro Vancouver’s residential sales, the prospect of continuing strong demand in likely. There may actually be a significant increase in sales volume recorded at the end of this month in anticipation of the federal government’s new mortgage qualification rule proposed to take effect June 1. We will have to wait until May 24 for the government’s decision on whether banks must raise the minimum stress interest threshold by about 50 percentage points – a market cooling measure which may cause some home buyers to make their home purchases before the end of May. For many buyers, however, the more significant issues are rising prices and the pace of new listings which still needs to increase to keep up with demand.

 The total inventory of available residential properties in Metro Vancouver at the end of April was 10,245, up 12% from March, but 11% below the 10-year April average. This April’s total included 7,938 new listings across all property types, a decrease of 4.2% from new listings in the preceding month. While new listings have been increasing in recent months, there has still been considerable upward pressure on housing prices across the region. The composite benchmark price at the end of April was $1,152,600, a 2.6% increase from the preceding month, and a 12% increase over the same period one year ago. Over the 12-month period leading to April 2021, the greatest number of sales has been in condominiums with a 355% increase since April 2020; second was in detached home with a 327% increase; and third was townhouses with a 342% increase over the same period. Below is my monthly comparison of benchmark prices for each of the three property types in the geographical areas closest to the overall benchmark price for Metro Vancouver. This selection is meant simply as a guide to average prices for comparable properties to assist you in your search for a home in the range of your budget and desired location. If you would like a more detailed market comparison, please let me know and will be happy to provide you with more specific information for your housing budget. I can also advise you on the optimal listing price if you are interested in selling you home.   

Detached homes

The benchmark price for a single-family detached home in Metro Vancouver at the end of April was $1,755,500, an increase of 3.2% from the preceding month. The extremities of this average were Vancouver West (not West Vancouver) at $3,363,400 and Sunshine Coast at $821,800. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: Richmond at $1,798,900, an increase of 2.2% from the preceding month; Port Moody at $1,814,000, an increase of 4.3% from the preceding month; and North Vancouver at $1,880,400, an increase of 1.5% from the preceding month. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the lower side of the average were: Burnaby South $1,728,000, an increase of 1.9% from the preceding month; Burnaby North at $1,709,000, an increase of 4.7% from the preceding month; and Vancouver East at $1,681,900, an increase of 2.2% from the preceding month. 

Townhouses

 

The benchmark price for a townhouse in Metro Vancouver at the end of April was $900,900, an increase of 3.3% from the preceding month. The extremities of this average were Vancouver West (not West Vancouver) at $1,242,600 and Maple Ridge at $664,300.  The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: Vancouver East at $1,002,100, an increase of 2.2% from the preceding month; North Vancouver at $1,080,300, an increase of 2.7% from the preceding month; and Vancouver West (not West Vancouver) at $1,242,600, an increase of 4.9% from the preceding month. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the lower side of the average were: Richmond at $888,800, an increase of 2.8% from the preceding month; Burnaby South at $842,200, an increase of 2.7% from the preceding month; and New Westminster at $816,200, an increase of 1.8% from the preceding month. (Squamish was excluded here as it is too far out for my clients.)

Condominiums

 

The benchmark price for a condominium in Metro Vancouver at the end of April was $729,600, an increase of 1.9% the from the preceding month. The extremities of this average were West Vancouver at $1,160,000 and Maple Ridge at $413,200. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: Burnaby East at $752,000, an increase of 0.7% from the preceding month; Vancouver West at $829,600, an increase of 1.6% from the preceding month; and West Vancouver at $1,160,000, an increase of 1.5% from the preceding month. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the lower side of the average were: Richmond at $710,300, an increase of 2.1% from the preceding month; Port Moody at $708,400, an increase of 1.5% from the preceding month; and Burnaby South at $696,400, an increase of 2.0% from the preceding month. 

 

Let me help

 

By working hard for my clients, I stay abreast of the most recent events in the real estate market. This includes monitoring monthly price fluctuations for every property type. If you would like to chat about your needs, whether for selling or buying, I am happy to talk to you. I never pressure anyone, but I can give you honest and informed advice so you can make your best decisions. Please feel free to call.